Roger, Rafa Lead The Way In These Serve & Return Scenarios
21 May 2019 10:50
Tennis has traditionally been a game of feel. How does the court feel? How heavy do the balls feel? How hot does the weather feel today? How do I feel going into the match?
So, it’s time to take a ‘feel’ test.
You have got to pick one of the following two scenarios that you feel would give yourself the best chance of winning the game. Do you feel more confident winning a game when you are serving with the score at 0/30, or is it better to be returning serve with the server trailing 0/15?
On one hand you are serving, but still four points from the game and your opponent is only two points away from breaking you. On the other hand, you are returning but you already have the first point in the bag and the server is still at love.
If you answered it feels better to be the returner at 0/15 rather than the server at 0/30, your feel for the better situation would be wrong.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the ATP Rankings winning games while serving at 0/30 and returning at 0/15, from the 2015 season up to the 2019 Internazionali BNL d’Italia, shows that serving at 0/30 is definitely the higher percentage option.
Current Top 10 Average: Winning The Game
Holding from 0/30 = 49.1% (1627/3316)
Breaking from 0/15 = 41.6% (4948/11891)
Difference = 7.5 percentage points
Holding from 0/30
It’s intriguing to learn that 0/30 is still a very even battle for the Top 10. In fact, five players posted a winning record, with Roger Federer leading the pack, holding 55.7 per cent (131/235) of the time. World No.1 Novak Djokovic came in second, beating big servers Kevin Anderson and Juan Martin del Potro.
Current Top 10: Holding from 0/30 since 2015
Position
Player
Games Won
Total Games
Win Percentage
1
Roger Federer
131
235
55.7%
2
Novak Djokovic
198
361
54.8%
3
Kevin Anderson
156
300
52.0%
4
Juan Martin del Potro
94
185
50.8%
5
Rafael Nadal
191
376
50.8%
6
Marin Cilic
177
369
48.0%
7
Kei Nishikori
189
395
47.8%
8
Dominic Thiem
229
480
47.7%
9
Alexander Zverev
183
428
42.8%
10
Stefanos Tsitsipas
79
187
42.2%
-
TOTAL/AVERAGE
1627
3316
49.1%
Breaking Serve From 0/15
World No. 2 Rafael Nadal was the only Top 10 player to be above 50 per cent breaking serve after winning the first point of the game when returning. Djokovic featured in second place again, while Kei Nishikori was third best in breaking serve from 0/15.
Current Top 10: Breaking From 0/15 Since 2015
Position
Player
Games Won
Total Games
Win Percentage
1
Rafael Nadal
710
1409
50.4%
2
Novak Djokovic
724
1481
48.9%
3
Kei Nishikori
604
1349
44.8%
4
Roger Federer
506
1191
42.5%
5
Juan Martin del Potro
311
738
42.1%
6
Alexander Zverev
524
1286
40.7%
7
Dominic Thiem
601
1492
40.3%
8
Marin Cilic
470
1296
36.3%
9
Stefanos Tsitsipas
188
554
33.9%
10
Kevin Anderson
310
1095
28.3%
-
TOTAL/AVERAGE
4948
11891
41.6%
The moral of the story is that breaking serve is still a very difficult proposition, even if you only have to win three points while the server has to win four. It also shows us that a 0/30 hole is not as deep as we think. In some cases, it’s not a hole at allreadfullarticle
